Tuesday 11 November 2014

What's causing the Derby city centre slowdown?

Over the last month or so, the Derby City Centre property market has lost some of the momentum that was seen in the first half of the year, as prices rose by just 0.7% to leave annual price growth at 5.5% on average in the City Centre (compared to nearer 9% for the city as whole).

It was interesting to see The Nationwide Building Society House Price Index showed its first monthly price fall for 18 months in September 2014 and three-month on three month price growth fell by more than half the levels seen in March 2014. This could be down to an increase in supply.

Looking at the City centre, during the first 3 months of 2014, on average, 32 properties were coming on to the market each month and for any potential buyer had, on average, 137 properties to choose from. In September, there were 32% more properties for a buyer to choose from (182 to be exact) and the number of new properties coming onto the market also increased. 

Greater supply with tempered demand has eased the market and good news as we would not want a repeat of the overheating in the mid 2000’s where property values in Derby were increasing by over 20% a year between 2001 and 2004.

Other factors that are driving the city centre market slowdown – namely the emerging impact of mortgage regulation and threat of interest rate rises are having an influence on buyer (mainly landlord) sentiment.

However, the suburb areas of Derby; Allestree, Littleover, Mickleover etc, have benefitted from a delayed ripple effect from the South and saw their strongest quarterly price growth for four and half years. Interestingly, though, average values remain closer to 6% below their pre credit crunch level, property prices in the these areas of city are on average 3% above the pre – credit crunch level of late 2007.

It now seems certain that the spectre of interest rate rises and the uncertainty around the General Election will suppress the short term potential for further price growth in Derby as a whole, but considering we have a couple of years of decent growth, great demand for rental properties with
minimal void periods on most properties, this easing could be a blessing is disguise, as I don’t know about you, I wouldn’t want to see a repeat of the boom and bust property market of the last decade.

As always, as I don’t sell property, if you want a chat about what (or not to buy in the Derby property market, email me the property link from Rightmove to my email address and i will give you my honest opinion.

      


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